Casino Theoretical Win Equation
There may be technical problems with getting accurate values for these numbers, but at its core, the formula for theo is simple: The theoretical win for players who play Casino War is (0.0290) × (total amount wagered). The theoretical win from players who place a wager on the pass line in craps is (0.0141) × (total amount wagered). Comps are usually figured as a percentage of the casino's theoretical win from a player. Take the amount of action you give, multiply by the house edge, and then take some percentage of that result to calculate the comp amount. The more you play on low payback slots, the greater your comps.
I need to understand what values have been placed into my system by my predessor so I can see if I am comping correctly. I am a new casino mgr at a property and am trying to see if my comping measures are correct, I ran a test on a John Doe account and gave him a $100 buy in with one hour of play at a $25 avg bet and a $100 cash out. I did this on craps, BJ, Roulette and 3 card poker. On craps the system gavee him a $16 theo loss and a $4 comp. On BJ it gave him a $17 theo loss and a $4 comp. On Roulette it gave him a $42 theo loss with $10 in comps and on 3 Card it gave him a $33 theo loss and $8 in comps. I'm just wanting to figure out the correct theo formula that was programed into the system and it's relationship to the comp $ offered? Can anyone help me?
Sounds like the system is treating all games equal, with comps at about 22% of theo. However, this is wrong. Players should be comped at 200 percent of theoretical loss. I strongly suggest that you have the system reprogrammed to reflect this.
Sounds like the system is treating all games equal, with comps at about 22% of theo. However, this is wrong. Players should be comped at 200 percent of theoretical loss. I strongly suggest that you have the system reprogrammed to reflect this.
Is this serious? How would a casino make money?
I need to understand what values have been placed into my system by my predessor so I can see if I am comping correctly. I am a new casino mgr at a property and am trying to see if my comping measures are correct, I ran a test on a John Doe account and gave him a $100 buy in with one hour of play at a $25 avg bet and a $100 cash out. I did this on craps, BJ, Roulette and 3 card poker. On craps the system gavee him a $16 theo loss and a $4 comp. On BJ it gave him a $17 theo loss and a $4 comp. On Roulette it gave him a $42 theo loss with $10 in comps and on 3 Card it gave him a $33 theo loss and $8 in comps. I'm just wanting to figure out the correct theo formula that was programed into the system and it's relationship to the comp $ offered? Can anyone help me?
The payback % of ~20-25% of theoretical loss is appropriate (though, if you do decide to increase it, that'd be great...).
Looking at the house edges for those games and the average number of decisions per hour, I get
BJ: $25 bet * 70 hands per hour * .6% HA = $10.50 theoretical loss
TCP: $25 bet * 30 hands per hour * 3.5% HA = $26.25 theoretical loss
Craps: $25 bet * 80 rolls per hour * 30% roll resolution rate* 1.41% HA= $8.46 theoretical loss *EDITED*Roulette: $25 bet * 60 spins per hour* 5.26% HA= $78.90 theoretical loss
Depending on the exact rules of your games and the pace of play in your casino, you can adjust the decisions/hour and house advantage to get a more accurate theoretical loss. Also, please note that there is pretty much a 0% chance of $100 lasting an hour with a $25 average bet in any of these games.
Is this serious? How would a casino make money?
It's tongue-in-cheek. But, to answer your question...video keno:-)
Theoretical Win Casino
Isn't the house edge in craps based on bets resolved? And Aren't most bets resolved on an average of 3-4 rolls. So the TL should be much less for craps I would say.
D'oh, you're right! I don't play craps, and I thought about just leaving that one off the list. Instead I went for it and blew it. I've edited my post to reflect your comment.
You might want to adjust your roulette comp. Your system is assuming a pretty slow game: 30 spins per hour. 35 spins per hour is the current industry norm for a 'blended' roulette theoretical. Some games move very fast. Some are excruciatingly slow. I suspect that some of the more sophisticated comp systems allow the pit to enter the speed of the game, which affects the theoretical. The Rapid Roulette systems are generally valued at almost double of a regular game because the RR game moves so fast - typically north of 50 spins per hour.
Another factor you need to be aware of is that, in general, 40% of the 'theo' is reserved for marketing in the overall scheme of things. The comps you are able to dole out at your discretion are only a portion of this total. The other portion goes into the other offers the casino uses to entice the player to come back (free rooms, promotional chips, tournaments, etc.) Your 'discresionary' percentage appears to be 25%, which is about average.
Since 00 Roulette offers you a huge HA, and the skill level of the player is not a factor, you might want to look into increasing the comp value so that you attract more roulette players. In general, the industry norm is to weight roulette at four times the value of BJ when it comes to comps. Upping the average number of assumed spins per hour to 35 or 40 instead of 30 would put you more in line with the industry average.
Casino Theoretical Win Equation Examples
So, I would say that with the execption of possibly underrating your roulette play, your comps are comparable with industry averages.
Casino Theoretical Win Equation Generator
Casino Theoretical Win
Theoretical win and the standard deviations of expected value have been widely covered in numerous articles. Unfortunately for me, the discussion on the topic has seldom been comprehensive enough to be understood by the layperson (meaning me). This post attempts to explain the issue in the simplest possible way. Why is this important? Theoretical win is derived from the probabilities built into any casino game. As all casino games are designed (in theory) to guarantee a return to the casino, the theoretical win (winnings for the player) is always negative while the expected value, also known as expectation (winnings for the casino) is always positive. However, like with all probabilities, an element of randomness exists. The standard deviation of theoretical win thus provides a threshold for casino managers to decide if play has passed the limit where it becomes suspect. Theoretical Win and Expected Value The average of results is determined by the theoretical win formula. Hence, 50% of all